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2:03

Welcome to the Fantasy Baseball

2:05

Today podcast from CBS Sports.

2:08

And for this bitch, we're

2:10

seeing Deebla Field! This

2:12

is Wanda! Walk the wall! Got

2:15

a fantasy question? Email FantasyBaseball

2:17

at cbsi.com. Get

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ready to win your league.

2:22

Where fantasy becomes reality! Now

2:25

here's Frank, Scott, and Chris. Hello

2:27

and welcome in tough fantasy baseball

2:29

today on Wednesday, September 25th. I

2:31

am, for example, Joey. Bye, Chris

2:33

Towers. Today on the show, five

2:36

hitters who are finishing the season

2:38

strong. Got some pitcher questions. Taking

2:40

a closer look at some young hitters we haven't

2:42

talked about in a while. And

2:44

much more, let's jump in. Is

2:47

this happening? It is! Alright,

2:50

Chris, I am going to kick us off here

2:52

because I want to talk about Michael Harris, who

2:54

is on fire. I brought

2:56

him up last week as, where do you think this guy is

2:58

going to be drafted next year? And basically

3:01

since then, he has just gone crazy. He

3:05

has five straight multi-hit games and

3:07

a big one here on Tuesday. You know,

3:09

pretty much a must-win series here for the

3:11

Braves going up against the Mets. Michael Harris

3:13

went three for four with the 16th home

3:16

run, 111.5 exit velocity, 422 feet. Last

3:20

13 games, he is batting 417

3:23

with seven homers, 16 runs,

3:25

13 RBI, one steal, 95 mile

3:28

per hour average exit velocity, crazy barrel rate.

3:30

Yeah, he's absolutely on fire

3:32

now. He is leading off

3:35

the Atlanta Braves lineup. And,

3:37

you know, I was trying

3:39

to think, how can Michael

3:41

Harris get near the top

3:43

of the Braves lineup in 2025? Because

3:46

that seems like it would go a long way to

3:49

helping his fantasy value. Like, if Acuna is healthy, I think

3:51

there is no doubt he is going to lead off. Can

3:54

they slide Albee's down to fifth in the

3:56

lineup and kind of go, Acuna, have

3:59

a good time? Paris, Riley,

4:01

Olsen, Albies. That

4:04

kind of seems reasonable. Oh, well they

4:06

have Ozuna too. I don't know, man, it's tough, it's

4:08

tough. Yeah, it's one,

4:11

I do just expect the Braves lineup to

4:13

be better in 2025 than it has been

4:15

in 2024. Probably

4:17

unreasonable to expect it to be as good as

4:19

it was last year when, I

4:22

don't know, every player had like an

4:24

800 OPS in the lineup, but I do

4:27

think it will be better. And yeah, I

4:30

think it comes down to Albies and how

4:32

much faith they have in him bouncing

4:35

back. And what's worth noting

4:37

there is it's

4:39

been a disappointing season for Michael Harris.

4:41

He's been better now than

4:44

Albies, if you go by OPS. He's right

4:46

around 730 right now. Albies

4:48

is still right around 700. That

4:51

makes two of the past three seasons

4:54

where Harris has been the better hitter than

4:56

Albies. And I might

5:00

just take Harris moving forward as

5:03

the better hitter. Albies will be 28 next season. Harris,

5:07

I believe is, he's only like

5:09

23, right? That

5:11

sounds right. He

5:13

is, yeah, he turns 24. Four

5:16

in March, yeah. So, you know, I

5:19

think you probably, like

5:22

they might just defer to the veteran,

5:24

the offensive, you know, not

5:27

centerpiece, but one of the offensive centerpieces in

5:29

Ozzy Albies for most of the last decade

5:32

and give him the edge. But I

5:34

do think there's a legitimate argument and

5:36

a legitimate chance that Harris

5:39

could be ahead of Albies. You

5:41

know, he's less of an

5:43

ideal number two guy because he's not

5:46

a high OBP guy. But

5:48

then again, Albies doesn't walk a

5:50

ton. Yeah, so I think

5:52

you can make a case for it. And I

5:54

think it really would help because there's a huge

5:56

difference between batting. Six,

5:59

seven. or eighth and batting second

6:02

in a lineup. You're talking about probably a played

6:05

appearance is over the course of a season, if not

6:07

more. So that is the

6:09

one thing that I think Michael Harris would need to do.

6:11

But I mostly feel

6:13

OK about just writing this this

6:15

season off and viewing him

6:18

more or less how I did coming

6:21

into the season. And the fact that he's

6:23

closing out the season so strong certainly helps

6:25

in that regard. So I

6:27

am not done with my

6:30

initial run of outfielder rankings. I

6:32

I'm thinking I might have

6:35

a an out like

6:37

a full position by

6:39

position rankings ready for next week

6:42

on the FBI newsletter. I

6:45

think he's going to be top 15 for me, though.

6:47

Hmm. Again, that's Michael Harris, whose

6:50

ADP was 34.4 entering this season. Lots

6:53

of hype as we started to get

6:55

closer to opening day with Michael Harris.

6:57

And I wonder what that discount

7:00

is going to be. I asked you guys last week,

7:02

I think you said either round six or round seven.

7:05

It'll probably be a little bit higher than that, especially

7:07

with the strong finish. You know, round five, round six.

7:09

If we get a two to three round discount based

7:12

on where he was drafted this year, he's

7:14

still young enough. He's entering the prime of his career.

7:16

And as we pointed out,

7:18

hopefully, if these guys hit to their capability,

7:20

the top six in the Braves lineup is

7:23

still very formidable with Acuna,

7:26

Albies, Olson, Riley, Ozuna Harris

7:28

in some order, hoping

7:30

for a big bounce back next season for

7:32

the Atlanta Braves. Let's stick with that team.

7:35

Chris, your player of the night is Spencer

7:37

Schwellenbach. Spencer Schwellenbach, who we've talked a lot

7:39

about in the second half. And

7:42

for good reason, he went seven

7:44

innings, gave up one run today

7:46

against the Mets only for

7:48

strikeouts. Strikeouts have been a little

7:52

up and down lately, but he's

7:55

just been phenomenal. Basically,

7:58

since July 1st, he had a. 568 ERA at

8:00

the end of June. And

8:03

since then, let me make

8:05

sure I have this number right. He

8:09

has been top 15 among

8:11

starting pitchers since July 1st

8:14

before going seven innings

8:16

with one earned run and getting a win

8:19

on Tuesday night. So could

8:21

potentially be a top 12 starting

8:24

pitcher since July

8:26

1st. And overall, since his debut, he's

8:29

been a top 28 pitcher starting

8:32

pitcher again, before tonight.

8:34

And we've talked a lot about the

8:36

component parts for Spencer

8:38

Schwellenbach, but I think it's worth highlining again.

8:41

26.3% strikeout rate, good

8:44

for 27th among 124 pitchers who

8:46

have thrown at least 100 innings this season. 4.9%

8:49

walk rate. That

8:51

was entering Tuesday's star where he only walked

8:53

one. That was the 13th best mark among

8:56

pitchers with at least 100 innings. The

9:00

only pitchers who have both a

9:02

higher strikeout rate and a lower

9:04

walk rate than Spencer Schwellenbach are

9:07

Logan Gilbert, Joe Ryan and Tarek

9:09

Schubert, which is pretty good

9:11

company to be keeping. I mean, that's

9:14

two top 12 starting pitchers in fantasy. And I

9:17

don't think Joe Ryan was going to be top 12,

9:19

but he wasn't far off before his

9:21

injury. So you add

9:24

in the fact that he's got pretty average

9:26

results on balls and play. And you're talking

9:28

about a guy who was 18th in XERA.

9:32

Again, entering tonight's start will likely

9:34

be even higher than that.

9:36

And so when you're talking

9:38

about where to rank Spencer Schwellenbach

9:40

for 2025, I

9:44

don't think it's a stretch to say he has top 12

9:46

upside. I don't think it's a stretch to say that there

9:49

is really not that much of a

9:51

difference in skill between Spencer

9:53

Schwellenbach and guys like Logan Gilbert or

9:55

George Kirby who are going to likely

9:57

be top 12 starting pitchers. for

10:00

next season in the rankings and an ADP. I

10:04

think there's even more strikeout upside than he's shown.

10:07

You know, the curveball and splitter are elite

10:10

swing and miss pitches. He's 12th,

10:12

I believe, in swinging strike rate this

10:15

season at 13.8%. The

10:18

problem is he's a

10:21

converted reliever from college who

10:23

had Tommy John surgery and through 65 innings

10:25

last season, his first season in

10:27

professional ball. He is,

10:29

if he makes one more start or, you know,

10:31

they make it to postseason, almost

10:34

certainly going to finish with more than 100 innings

10:37

than he threw last season. Now,

10:39

the so-called

10:41

Verducci effect has. Been

10:45

overstated like there is no if

10:48

you just look at this one thing, it can tell you

10:50

who's going to get hurt at starting pitcher. That's not

10:52

how it works. But

10:54

I think 100 more innings than you

10:56

ever thrown in a season is

10:58

a reasonable red flag. So

11:02

I think it's OK to downgrade Spencer Schwellenbach, but if

11:04

you just took what he's done

11:07

at face value and

11:09

the fact that he's going to be 25 years old and

11:12

the fact that he is clearly

11:14

ascending and has gotten better in the second half, I

11:16

think you can make a case that he's a top

11:18

20 starting pitcher for 2025. I

11:21

don't think you should rank him that way, and I don't think you'll need

11:23

to. I think it's reasonable to

11:25

downgrade him a little bit because of injury

11:28

red flags. But

11:30

that's still probably a top 30, 30

11:34

starting pitcher, definitely top 36. And

11:36

the way I'm viewing it now, I wrote about this

11:38

for the FBI newsletter tomorrow is.

11:41

Top 36 ish.

11:44

It might be 38th, you know, when

11:46

I actually go through, it

11:49

might be 30th. But

11:51

that range feels right to me. I

11:53

think higher man. It's too low.

11:55

I think, yeah, I think Schwellenbach, I think

11:58

for all the reasons that you just laid.

12:00

Like the fantasy baseball industry now is so

12:02

smart and yeah We all have access to

12:04

the same numbers and the fact that he

12:06

is too amazing with pitches The swinging strike

12:08

rate is great. He should be pitching for

12:10

a good team. The k-1 walk rate is

12:12

there Good job on

12:15

limiting hard contact so far Like everything

12:17

is there for Schwellenbach to be the

12:19

breakout pitcher in 2025

12:21

and I think a lot of people are gonna realize that and What

12:24

you said about he might not be

12:26

that different skills wise than someone like Logan Gilbert or

12:28

George Kirby We're gonna be ranking the top 12 maybe

12:30

top 15 You downgrade him

12:33

a little bit because we haven't seen him do it

12:35

before and maybe a little bit of

12:37

concerns about workload You

12:39

downgrade him from there and he still kind of

12:41

ranked as like a top 24 top 25 starting

12:43

pitcher and that's yeah Look, I

12:45

don't know for sure that this is what's gonna happen

12:47

But my early lean is

12:49

I think he's probably gonna be one

12:52

of those helium pitchers that strapped

12:54

is like a fringe SP2, you

12:56

know low-end SP2 high-end SP3 type

12:58

like like Bailey over. Yeah entering

13:00

this season which we'll

13:02

get to it later, but Hasn't

13:05

worked out as well as you

13:07

might have liked and look that I think there is something to

13:10

be said for like this type

13:12

of pitcher potentially getting

13:14

overrated, you know, the Small

13:17

sample size k-1 walk darlings, you know

13:19

Like k-1 walk ratio is a very

13:21

useful step and you know I know

13:24

some very smart people have said if

13:26

you could pick just one step To

13:29

judge a pitcher by and nothing else k-1 walk

13:31

rate would be the one to go with. Yeah

13:34

But then you look at like the guys who are ahead of Spencer

13:36

Schallenbach. He's 13th Mostly

13:39

elite pitchers but

13:42

also Nick Pavetta Always

13:44

a k-1 walk rate darling. It is

13:47

not foolproof for sure. You say kukuchi

13:50

Good pitcher. Yeah Not

13:53

an ace very Nick Pavetta e

13:55

better than the other but yeah,

13:57

they have similar words You

14:00

know, Bailey over has had his ups and downs. Tanner,

14:02

Bobby has had his ups and downs. Pablo Lopez. Those

14:04

guys are all a little bit below Swellenbach,

14:07

but in the same range. So it's just to say

14:09

that, like, I think pushing

14:11

him into the top 24 is probably going too

14:13

far. But

14:18

we'll see. You know, I haven't

14:20

actually ranked it yet. So like that

14:22

was just not even

14:25

eyeballing. I didn't like go through and say, yes,

14:27

I'd rather have this guy. I know I'd rather

14:29

have Shmellenbach. Maybe, yeah,

14:31

maybe 30th is too low. Maybe I'm not

14:33

being aggressive enough. Oh, my goodness gracious. Just

14:35

wanted to point out the Padres

14:37

just ended their game with the Dodgers

14:40

with a triple play, which is pretty,

14:42

pretty crazy stuff. A five, four, three triple

14:45

triple play around the horn to end that

14:47

game there. Oh,

14:49

my goodness gracious. Lineup wanted to

14:52

give the Giants some some

14:55

shine here, playing spoiler against the

14:57

Dbacks, who very clearly need

14:59

to win every game right now. The

15:01

Giants put up 11 runs on 14 hits,

15:03

including five homers. Elliott Ramos, four

15:05

for five with his twenty second home

15:07

run. Michael Canfordo, one for five with

15:09

his 20th homer and Tyler Fitzgerald, two

15:11

for four with his 15th home run

15:13

of the season. Just wanted to

15:15

take a couple of minutes here to to look

15:18

at Ramos and Tyler Fitzgerald. We haven't talked about

15:20

Ramos in a long time. He got called up

15:22

and was great right out of the gate. He

15:25

has taken a step back here in the

15:27

second half to twenty nine batting average, seven

15:29

homers, four steals. Those are OK, six sixty

15:32

five OPS. You know, I

15:34

looked into it. There's nothing under the hood that

15:37

seems that bad. I don't exactly know

15:39

why the numbers aren't there. Twenty five percent

15:41

strikeout rate is OK. Ninety

15:43

point seven average exit velocity seems fine.

15:45

Fourteen percent barrel rate seems really good.

15:48

So maybe some bad luck here for Ramos. Everything

15:51

else, like the quality of contact, the expected

15:53

stats. They all look really good. I

15:55

think Ramos is in play as like a, you

15:58

know, outfielder. heading into

16:00

next season. What do you think? I'm trying to

16:03

think of some like comps for his skill set,

16:07

like relatively high strikeout

16:09

rate, relatively low walk rate.

16:12

You know what came to mind? Eloy him in his unhealthy. Yeah.

16:16

I want to say Eloy was

16:18

probably at his best, at least

16:20

a bigger standout, both in contact

16:22

and quality of contact. So,

16:26

you know, maybe that one, like the

16:29

one that came to mind. And I don't know if this is, but

16:32

like Mitch Hanager, when

16:34

things were going well for him a couple of

16:36

years ago, I could see that. Yeah, was never

16:39

a great play to some guy. Didn't have much

16:41

speed, hit the ball hard, but didn't have like

16:44

massive raw power. That

16:47

might be, and that

16:49

ended up being a fairly volatile profile. But I think

16:51

a lot of that was injuries. Now,

16:54

the thing that Ramos has working against him, really

16:57

tough home Park. And

16:59

that's just kind of always going to make it tough. You

17:01

know, we've seen a lot of

17:03

guys in San Francisco, you

17:07

know, who we think are very, very good, but just

17:09

never quite put it all together. And,

17:12

you know, I think

17:14

overall, it's probably a top

17:16

36 outfielder for

17:20

next year. Sounds right. You know,

17:22

again, just eyeballing. I haven't finished

17:24

outfield rankings either, but I think

17:28

it's a skill set to like, and

17:31

I think you look at the overall

17:33

package and the expected stats largely back

17:35

up the overall production. I

17:38

think you just take the slump

17:41

in the second half in stride and you

17:43

don't overreact to that. You don't react to the hot

17:45

start and you just look at it

17:47

and say, yeah, he's a solid hitter, but probably not

17:50

a star. Yeah. If you just

17:52

look at the expected stats, if he's a two 50

17:54

hitting 25 home run 800 OPS bat, that's probably. a

18:00

third outfielder and that's you know, it's not an elite

18:02

standout player, but it's a very

18:04

serviceable fantasy outfielder. I mean, that

18:06

is a steel guy, you know, Lord

18:11

is Korea, like the good Lord is Korea

18:13

seasons. He's definitely been like

18:15

a top 30 outfielder, obviously, again, a

18:18

guy who hasn't been as consistent as you'd

18:20

like. But when he's been at

18:22

his best, that that feels like a decent comp,

18:24

more strikeouts for Ramos. But that

18:26

could be one. Tyler Fitzgerald, by the way,

18:28

this was his first home run since August 14th. So

18:32

you and Scott kind of called this. It's

18:34

not going to last. We knew that he

18:36

was, you know, looked like one of the

18:38

best hitters in baseball for like a month

18:40

stretch there. But 31 games between homers. Tyler

18:42

Fitzgerald hit 231 with a 554. Ops

18:46

37 percent strikeout rate.

18:48

Zero barrels during that span. And

18:51

look, I don't want to just completely poo-poo the guy,

18:53

because when you put it all together,

18:56

92 games played the season. He's hit 287 with 15 homers and 17

18:58

seals. That's

19:01

still a really, really good player, especially at

19:03

that pace. I still

19:05

don't know what to make of it for next

19:07

season and beyond. But the

19:10

fact is, he has showed some level of skill,

19:12

at least in terms of power and speed in Tyler

19:15

Fitzgerald. Yeah, I think the

19:17

speed is the one thing that feels

19:19

most projectable for Tyler Fitzgerald looking ahead

19:21

to 2025. And, you know,

19:24

he could legitimately be a 30 steel

19:26

guy if he was an everyday player,

19:28

I think. Probably

19:30

like I know he has 15 homers in 92

19:32

games. I

19:34

think the true talent level is probably more like 15

19:38

ish homers over a full season. And

19:40

so, you know, you put that together

19:42

with what is it now a 232

19:45

XBA. It's

19:49

a tough profile to make work. Probably

19:52

just a middle infielder in a roto league, but. As

19:56

a late round pick, which I think is probably. probably

20:00

where he ends up. I think Tyler

20:02

Fitzgerald could be fine, but it

20:05

also feels like a profile that could just

20:08

collapse. Even

20:10

as good as he's been this year, I think

20:13

there's a non-zero chance he's not on the opening day

20:15

roster next year. It feels

20:17

like the kind of thing where you could see a

20:19

40% strikeout

20:21

rate in spring training and they just decide

20:23

that they can't go with him as

20:25

they're starting shortstop for 2025. Again,

20:28

that is Tyler Fitzgerald. The updated playoff

20:30

picture, by the way, this week is

20:34

obviously pivotal for many teams and it's just really

20:36

fun because it's kind of a sneak peek of

20:38

the playoffs and these games are really, really starting

20:40

to matter. They have mattered, but you know, just

20:43

there's a microscope on a lot of the games

20:45

and series going on right now. Congrats

20:48

to the Astros and Orioles, the Astros clinched

20:50

the AL West, the Orioles clinched a playoff

20:52

spot. As for the AL wildcard,

20:54

both the Tigers and Royals won. The twins

20:56

and Mariners lost. So the twins are two

20:59

games behind, the Mariners are two and a

21:01

half. And for the NL wildcard, the Braves

21:03

beat the Mets, the DBACs lost. The Braves

21:05

are now just half a game behind the

21:08

Arizona Diamondbacks. So the Tigers

21:10

are up to an 87.7%

21:13

chance of making the playoffs according to fan

21:15

graphs, playoff odds. Crazy. It's

21:19

even, it's even wilder than you think.

21:22

On September 15th, 10 days

21:25

ago, their playoff odds were 9.9%. Wow.

21:30

Jumps 80 percentage points. Yeah. Like

21:32

I was looking at Tarek

21:34

Scubel because, you know, he could

21:36

make one more start. And if he

21:39

did, he would have a chance to pass Chris

21:41

Sale for the strikeouts. He's actually

21:43

currently the strikeout leader, but sale has one

21:45

more start, has a chance to be lead

21:47

the majors in ERA strikeouts and wins, which

21:50

hasn't happened since y'all on Santana. Chris sale

21:52

also has a chance to do it by

21:54

the way. He,

21:56

he probably isn't going to make another start. There's five

21:59

games left. There's only They're

22:01

two games up now. That's

22:03

wild. How do we get here?

22:05

Where like the Tigers might be resting players this

22:07

weekend. The best story

22:09

in the second half, the Detroit Tigers there.

22:12

Quick reminder to sign up for the FPT newsletter if

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562-314-4780. Welcome

24:00

back in News and Notes. Francisco

24:05

Lindor remained out of the lineup Tuesday

24:07

due to that lingering back issue. He's

24:09

now missed eight straight. Luis Angel Acuna

24:11

started in his place and there

24:13

is some hope that Lindor could return on

24:15

Wednesday. The Mets starting to feel

24:17

the heat a little bit. So maybe even

24:19

if he's not 100%, they're going to try

24:21

and get Lindor back in the lineup. Yordan

24:24

Alvarez was out again Tuesday due to that

24:26

right knee sprain. Yordan Alvarez hopes to get

24:28

some at bats this weekend against the Guardians.

24:31

Austin Riley will not return the season.

24:33

He underwent a CT scan Monday, which

24:35

showed that his hand fracture is healing

24:37

slower than expected. Josh Young

24:39

was officially placed on the aisle with

24:41

right wrist tendonitis. Max Muncy was back

24:44

in the lineup after missing Sunday with

24:46

side soreness. Ronaldo Lopez threw a bullpen

24:48

on Tuesday and could potentially return before

24:51

the end of the regular season. He

24:53

is on the aisle with right shoulder

24:55

inflammation. Gabriel Moreno returned to

24:57

the lineup after missing Monday with left

25:00

adductor tightness. Saya Suzuki was removed due

25:02

to a sprained right ankle. Michael Bush

25:04

left Tuesday's game after getting hit by

25:06

a pitch on his right arm. Matt

25:09

Wallner was removed due to a left

25:11

oblique tightness. Gavin Stone was

25:13

transferred to the 60-day IL and will not

25:15

return the season. He's out with right shoulder

25:17

inflammation. Ryan Mountcastle was reinstated

25:20

from the IL. Eloy Jimenez except

25:22

accepted his option to triple A.

25:24

The Dodgers promoted one of their

25:26

pitching prospects, Edgardo Enriquez,

25:29

number 15 prospect according to MLB

25:32

pipeline in the Dodgers organization. He's

25:34

22 years old. Big season

25:36

in the minors 272 ERA 123 whip 88 strikeouts over a 53 innings mostly

25:42

has pitched out of the bullpen in his minor

25:44

league career. He struck out two in a scoreless

25:46

inning in his debut and

25:48

I just see his cutter. I

25:51

didn't get to the exact I had it on in the background. I

25:53

wasn't watching but I know that he struck out two and he was

25:55

hitting like 101 miles per hour. Yeah,

25:58

he was hitting 101. 99

26:00

with his fastball, the cutter, uh, there's

26:03

a little Brewstar grader, all there where

26:05

he just throws fastballs and cutters. But

26:07

the cutter like looked

26:10

almost like a, like a curve ball.

26:13

At least the one I saw, like it had

26:15

a ton of drop. It's wild. Yeah.

26:18

So you threw 17 pitches, nine

26:20

fastballs, eight cutters. Uh,

26:22

yeah, pretty, pretty good spin on the cutter, 25, 77

26:24

average RPM. And, uh, yeah, he averaged 99.1 miles per

26:27

hour on

26:31

that fastball. As you mentioned, you know, just

26:33

a name in deeper dynasty leagues, like who's

26:36

to say he can't work his way into like

26:38

the Dodgers closer mix in future years. That's you

26:40

know, they clearly have not had a go-to guy.

26:42

I know it was like mostly Evan Phillips last

26:44

year. This year has kind of been a bit

26:46

of a mess. They have Michael Copac under contract

26:48

for next season, but I mean, it's not crazy.

26:50

He's not, who's to say he's not in the

26:52

rotation next year. Yeah.

26:54

So just the name deeper dynasty

26:56

leagues, Edgardo and Riekes, uh,

26:59

the Orioles officially released Craig Kimbrel

27:01

on Tuesday as Siri Ruiz underwent

27:03

right knee arthroscopic surgery. He only

27:05

got 29 games in

27:08

with the A's this season. Red

27:10

Sox prospect Christian Campbell was named baseball America's minor

27:12

league player of the year, 22 years old, a

27:14

fourth round pick in last year's draft. And this

27:17

season in the minors hit three 30 with 20

27:19

homers, 24 steals, a nine 97 OPS between high

27:25

a double a and triple a based

27:27

on the fact that he made it to triple a at 22 years old.

27:31

As long as he doesn't fall flat on his face next year,

27:34

I would guess we see him with the Red Sox at some

27:36

point in 2025. Yeah. He had a one 79 way to run

27:38

creative plus over the

27:41

course of the full season, which was by

27:44

far the highest of anyone with at least 400

27:47

appearances according to the athletic. Um,

27:50

number two was 160. So that's

27:53

a, that's a gigantic

27:55

gap. Um, and

27:58

it tells you that the, where he was

28:00

playing was also, you know, potentially

28:02

holding his stats back. Yeah,

28:05

it's it's been a huge, huge

28:07

improvement for him 2020 season,

28:10

I think. Pretty

28:13

good plate apparent plate discipline as

28:15

well. So like Roman,

28:18

Anthony's probably ahead of him, you would

28:20

have to think but yeah, they're they're,

28:22

they're gonna have to

28:24

make some room pretty early on next

28:26

year. Campbell

28:29

plays infield and outfield,

28:31

right? I think he

28:33

has primarily second base played multiple positions, but

28:36

yeah, I can pull that up real quick.

28:38

Yeah, so I

28:41

don't know if you know

28:43

if Von Grissom is really going to get another chance

28:45

next season. It's been kind of a lost season for

28:47

him. Obviously, we know Trevor story has

28:49

missed a ton of time. So there

28:51

are going to be opportunities for

28:53

you know, this big four in

28:56

Boston with Roman Anthony arguably

28:59

the top prospect in baseball Marcelo

29:01

Meyer, top 20 guy, overall, if

29:03

not a little higher,

29:06

and then feel who also made

29:08

it to AAA there. I

29:11

think first round picked last year as a

29:14

catcher. So a lot of a

29:17

lot of fun young names at on

29:19

the verge in Boston. Well, we'll see

29:21

if any of them make

29:24

the opening day roster, but they'll all be factors

29:26

for 20 for 25 for sure. Yeah, the

29:29

Red Sox are coming, man. They have a

29:31

very good nucleus of young players that are

29:33

getting ready to make an impact in

29:36

2025. Christian Campbell has played all

29:38

over the place in his minor league career, second

29:40

base, third base shortstop left field, center field, right

29:42

field. He's played second base the

29:44

most shortstop, the second most and then center

29:46

field, third most. So clearly a great athlete

29:48

who can play any position up the middle.

29:51

So Red Sox, you have to make some

29:53

trades at some point. They got they got

29:55

too many guys and they still need more

29:57

pitching. So yeah, I like that. I don't

29:59

know. like turn some of these

30:01

hitters into pitching, you know, I don't know. Sedan

30:03

Raphael or Brian Abreu are going

30:05

to are going to make

30:07

it through this this next wave of top

30:09

prospects. Will you're brave? So yeah, that can

30:12

make some sense. Yeah. Will your break you

30:14

for I don't know, like

30:16

a some like a SP three or SP four.

30:19

I saw some Red Sox fan tweeted

30:22

like Marcelo Meyer. Yeah, Marcelo

30:24

Meyer for Sandy Alcantara and

30:27

like it's not crazy. I

30:29

think I would do that, but I would hate it.

30:32

Yeah, I totally get that.

30:34

And the biggest news of all, Chris, John Sterling

30:36

has come out of retirement to call the rest

30:38

of the Yankees games this week, as well as

30:40

their postseason games. So how about that? I'm

30:43

not going to make the joke I want to make. It's fine.

30:45

Don't don't do it. Hitters who pick

30:47

things up in September. We already spoke about

30:49

Michael Harris. Some other names here. Bryce Harper,

30:51

two for four with his 30th home run.

30:53

In September, he's betting 325 with four home

30:56

runs, two steals, 976. Yes.

30:58

As good as Harper has been this year. It's

31:01

a little bit weird that his counting stats are down 84

31:03

runs, 87 RBI. It's

31:06

you know, we said something similar about your

31:08

on Alvarez like a month ago. Yeah, I

31:11

think those numbers caught up because he's just been

31:13

red hot. Well, it's it's kind of like Jose

31:15

Ramirez last year. Yeah. And the Phillies, you know,

31:17

look, there there have been some ups and downs,

31:19

but they won the NLE like they've had a

31:22

good lineup all season long. It's

31:24

just weird to me that runs right now. No, they

31:26

are fourth in the majors. Yeah, it's like how does

31:28

Harper not have more counting? Yeah, feels a little weird

31:30

there. It feels like an easy bet

31:33

on regression for next season positively. Yeah.

31:35

Lane Thomas continues his hot September one

31:38

for four with his 15th home run,

31:40

three RBI in September, batting 288 with

31:42

seven home runs, 20 RBI and a

31:44

946. Oh,

31:46

yes. Trevor Story continues to hit

31:48

since returning two for five with two doubles,

31:50

a run and an RBI batting 278 with

31:53

two homers, five steals, 794. Oh,

31:55

yes. Since returning and Kyle Tucker one for

31:57

four with his 23rd home run. last

32:00

12 games. The dude is back 381 for

32:02

homers. O.P.S.

32:05

around 1200 and the

32:07

full season pace for Kyle Tucker this year.

32:10

Forty nine homers, 23 steals. And

32:13

it's been like his best plate discipline

32:16

season to write. He just keeps getting

32:18

better. Yeah. And it's weird because

32:20

he's yeah, 17.2 percent walk rate, more

32:24

walks and strikeouts for the

32:26

season. Wow. And

32:29

like he's going to be 28 next season. So you

32:31

would think this is about as good as he's going

32:33

to get, except that every single

32:35

season, he seems to get a little bit better at.

32:38

Yeah. Something if not everything.

32:40

And so, yeah, I

32:43

don't really think the shin injury is

32:45

something we should be worried about for

32:47

next season. I guess the the

32:50

general weirdness around the Astros

32:52

handling of injuries this season,

32:55

but I don't know. I I think

32:57

he's if not a

32:59

first rounder and I think he should be.

33:01

He's certainly in the first round discussion. Yeah,

33:03

I think he's like a locked

33:05

in top eight or nine pick. Yeah.

33:07

And actually in head to head points,

33:09

too, which yeah, hasn't necessarily

33:11

been his best format in the past. Anything

33:14

you wanted to add on Lane Thomas or Trevor

33:16

Story who are finishing strong? Story,

33:19

I think it's just more fodder for the

33:22

the late round upside that

33:24

we've talked about a decent amount lately. Lane

33:27

Thomas, I can't really figure out. Partially,

33:30

it's just I don't know what his. Role

33:33

is going to be, I don't know what

33:36

his contract situation is for next season. Looks

33:38

like he's not a free agent this offseason.

33:40

So is he going

33:42

to be an everyday player for Cleveland next

33:44

season? I don't

33:46

know. That's that's the biggest question

33:49

for me. But yeah, the fact that he has.

33:52

Bounced back a little bit lately. Look, he's

33:54

going to end up with 15 homers, 30

33:57

plus steals. Pretty

33:59

bad. batting average, I think that's

34:01

all about what

34:04

we should expect from him moving forward.

34:06

And if he is an everyday player, I think

34:08

it's a probably

34:11

feel better about as a fourth outfielder in

34:14

a roto league, but you know, non

34:17

zero power, very useful speed and actually 32

34:20

steals, but 14

34:22

cots dealing. So that's a stat

34:24

that when a guy has

34:26

an unusually low stolen base percentage, it usually

34:28

goes one of two ways, right? They

34:30

either stop running as much or

34:33

the stolen base percentage improves the following season. I

34:35

would bet more on the latter. So there is,

34:37

I think, 35

34:40

steel, maybe 40 steel upside at the

34:42

high end for Lane Thomas, especially with

34:44

the guardians. I know a new manager

34:46

this year and Steven vote, but if

34:48

I am not mistaken, I believe they have

34:51

still been pretty aggressive on the base paths

34:53

this season. I could quickly

34:55

pull up their team steels Yeah,

34:58

they are fifth in stolen bases.

35:01

So that should bode well for

35:03

Lane Thomas. Yeah. Yeah. He has

35:08

20 steals in. No, sorry. I was

35:10

looking at the wrong. Okay. He only has four steals in

35:14

49 games since getting Cleveland. So that's

35:16

not been running much. He

35:19

has a 279 on base percentage

35:21

and like 16 of

35:23

his 34 hits have either been doubles or

35:25

home runs. So he might just have not very

35:27

many opportunities to run. But that

35:30

given how much his value does, I

35:32

think hinge on being a plus plus

35:34

base dealer, that's that's a concern. Yeah.

35:37

Again, that was Lane Thomas. Let's get

35:39

into some pitcher questions. We already spoke

35:41

about Spencer Schwellenbach. Let's talk about Cole

35:43

Reagan's who turned in another strong start

35:45

up against the Nationals. Six shout out

35:47

endings with six strikeouts. He had 11

35:49

with on 89 pitches, but

35:52

the velocity down across the board big

35:54

time fastball down two miles per hour

35:57

change up down two miles per hour

35:59

slider. down two point six miles

36:02

per hour. The fastball

36:04

93.4 was a season low in

36:06

terms of miles per hour. And this one, you

36:08

know, I look to see if maybe it was

36:10

a little bit colder here, you

36:13

know, just around the country. It was 66 degrees.

36:15

I really don't think that's cold enough to matter

36:17

that much. And we kind of

36:19

have seen some velocity fluctuations here in

36:22

the second half. I mean, it it just

36:24

kind of gets your the

36:26

wheels turning, thinking about another player whose innings

36:28

have jumped a lot from one year to

36:30

the next. And how might that affect him

36:33

in 2025? And there's

36:35

been a little bit of a drop in

36:37

effectiveness in the second half. And we've seen

36:39

his velocity has trailed off over the course

36:42

of the season. His

36:45

walk rate has jumped from seven point nine to

36:47

nine point nine percent in the second half. His

36:49

strikeout rate, I think, has dropped from like 30

36:51

to 29 percent, 28 percent. So

36:54

it's been a couple of points either way.

36:57

I think it's OK to view these as

37:00

red flags for him. You know, the big

37:02

innings jump, the declining velocity

37:04

as the season's gone on. I

37:06

think it's OK to view

37:08

those as red flags. Here's the

37:10

question. How many

37:13

starting pitchers in

37:15

the majors check off both

37:17

of these boxes? One, do not

37:20

have any red flags right there.

37:22

You've got like, I don't know,

37:24

maybe 19 pitchers total, maybe

37:26

like 26. There's guys like Michael Waka who just

37:28

like it doesn't matter. Like Chris Bassett,

37:30

he doesn't get hurt, but like, who cares? So

37:33

that's that's one box. You've already taken out most

37:35

starting pitchers. Then the other box

37:37

is. How many

37:40

realistically have even

37:42

comparable upside to what Cole

37:44

Reagans has shown this season? I

37:47

think it's probably like 25 as well. How

37:52

many of them have both of those categories? I

37:56

can't imagine it's more than 12. So

37:58

I think Cole Reagans is probably going to. to be a top 12 starting

38:00

pitcher for 2025. Like

38:03

he's going to end up with what, a 325 ERA, 220 something

38:06

strikeouts. That's

38:11

that's pretty good. I think I'll rank him there.

38:13

It's just a matter of will you draft him

38:16

there? Will you be the one to draft Cole

38:18

Reagan's in the third round

38:20

if it costs that much? I think that's

38:22

that's the question, right? Does it, does

38:24

it get to, are

38:26

we going to see a movement away from high end

38:28

starting pitchers first? I think that's pretty

38:30

likely. I would be kind of

38:32

surprised if any starting pitchers were drafted in the top

38:34

15 in ADP in

38:38

2025. I

38:40

could maybe scubal scubal. Yeah.

38:44

Um, so like, is that going to have the effect

38:46

of like, is Cole Reagan's SP

38:48

12, but he goes in the fourth round. That

38:51

seems pretty easy to stomach. Yeah. If

38:54

it's, you know, third round, it gets a, it's

38:56

gets a little dicey or so. You

38:59

know, obviously look, we're, we're going to have a, at

39:02

least another start from

39:04

Cole Reagan's if not multiple. So

39:07

we'll, we'll see how it looks. If he

39:09

gets blown up and the velocity is still

39:11

down, that's a little concerning, but he's been

39:15

really good throughout the season despite some red

39:17

flags. So I don't want to, I don't

39:19

want to overreact. Let's talk about

39:21

Logan Webb who was back on track with a quality

39:23

start at the D back six shutout innings with three

39:26

strikeouts, only nine wiffs on 95 pitches. And

39:29

he changed up the pitch mix in the start.

39:31

He threw a cutter 21% of the

39:33

time. That was only 2% usage

39:36

entering the start. It was

39:38

okay. Three wiffs, 25% with rated.

39:41

It did well on balls and play, but

39:45

this tells me that he he's kind

39:47

of searching right now, Chris, because that

39:50

changeup has just been so inconsistent this

39:52

season. You know, what's been

39:54

his bread and butter in previous years. I mean, that was part

39:56

of the reason why, you know, I think he was a

39:58

top three. Cy Young finisher last

40:00

year is because that change up was so, so good.

40:03

It has regressed mightily this season, and

40:06

it just kind of feels like Logan Webb is searching. And it worked,

40:09

at least in the start. Yeah, I

40:11

didn't realize that he had been throwing

40:13

a cutter more in

40:15

the month of September, basically.

40:18

Basically didn't throw it before

40:21

September. And

40:23

then his usage has been six percent, six

40:25

percent, 20 percent in the

40:28

last start and then 21 percent today. It's

40:33

a super small sample size. Entering today, he had

40:35

thrown 62 of them total. So I

40:37

don't know if you can really draw any conclusions about it

40:39

one way or the other. But in that

40:41

small sample size, it has been an effective

40:44

pitch at both generating whiffs and

40:46

generating weak contact. Seventy nine point

40:48

six mile per hour average exit

40:50

velocity. One forty

40:52

three Woba allowed. So I think

40:56

it's a positive sign that he's

40:59

searching, because like you said, this

41:01

season, the change of effectiveness

41:04

has really been hit or

41:06

miss. There was a stretch

41:08

in, I think, August or

41:11

maybe July, where it was really, really good again. And then

41:13

there is. But the the whiff rate overall,

41:15

I think is below 20 percent or right around 20

41:17

percent. Twenty one point four.

41:19

And so I. If

41:23

the cutter can be just

41:25

another effective weapon for him, I don't think

41:27

it's likely to change Logan Webb's profile. But

41:31

if it can stabilize him a bit and

41:33

give him another option when the change up

41:35

isn't working, I think that's only a good

41:37

thing. But I think you look at the

41:39

overall profile for for Logan Webb and three

41:42

forty seven era mediocre strikeouts,

41:46

mediocre for a must start pitcher

41:48

whip. That's probably what

41:50

he is. You're going to get a

41:52

ton of innings, though. He's one of

41:54

the more reliable sources of volume at

41:57

starting pitcher right now. And it

41:59

all adds. up to a guy who you

42:02

feel good about as your SP three, you

42:05

can live with as an

42:08

SP two, but you

42:10

need to find strikeout somewhere if that's what

42:12

it looks, what, what it ends up as.

42:14

Yeah. It just feels like such an uninspiring

42:16

SP two for next season.

42:18

Like Scott and I brought up Aaron

42:20

Nola yesterday, like similar, uninspiring SP two.

42:23

Like would, would you take

42:25

Spencer Schwellenbach over either of those guys? Like Nola

42:28

or Logan Webb. That

42:30

probably depends on who I took first,

42:32

right? Or, or I guess where, like

42:35

if we're talking about guys who fall to

42:37

like, I don't know, the

42:39

seventh round range and you're picking between them,

42:43

that probably means that I'm

42:45

chasing upside. And I think Spencer Schwellenbach

42:47

probably has a little more of that,

42:49

but like you pointed

42:52

out, the strikeout rate has fallen off a bit

42:54

as the season's gone on. His

42:56

Spencer Schwellenbach strikeout rate in the limited sample

42:59

size we saw in the minors, not elite,

43:01

much less than the strikeout pruning last season. So

43:05

it is possible that Spencer

43:07

Schwellenbach is more of a run of the mill strikeout

43:09

pitcher, in which case,

43:12

yeah, you'd probably rather have the safety

43:14

and stability of an Aaron Nola or Logan

43:16

Webb. So I

43:19

think I'll rank Nola and Webb ahead

43:22

of Schwellenbach, but I

43:25

don't know. They certainly don't have the

43:27

upside. Like Frambervaldez is another one where I

43:29

think he's just a better version of Logan

43:31

Webb right now, but that's a similar one

43:34

where you're, you're

43:36

mostly drafting for safety. And

43:41

that's an iffy decision to make

43:43

at starting pitcher where basically nobody's

43:45

actually safe. All right. Let's take

43:47

our final break. When we return, we'll take a closer

43:49

look at four young hitters and,

43:51

uh, you know, three of them playing

43:54

well, uh, Dylan Cruz. I don't know. Let's check

43:56

back in. We'll do that right after this. B2B

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45:00

back in. Let's take a closer

45:02

look at four young hitters. Kyle

45:04

Manzardo, starting to figure things

45:06

out here. One for three with a walk in

45:08

his fifth home run in 20 games since being

45:10

recalled. He's betting 314. Five homers, an OPS over

45:12

a thousand. 23% strikeout rate is solid. 51% fly

45:15

ball, 46% pull. So doing exactly

45:20

what we want in terms of power. 14% barrel

45:23

rate. Not playing every single day.

45:26

He started just 15 of 22 games

45:28

since being called up. But I

45:31

think this develops some

45:33

confidence, at least for Kyle Manzardo

45:35

as a late

45:37

round sleeper heading into 2025. Absolutely.

45:40

As a late round sleeper, I think he makes a lot

45:42

of sense. And I think the question is,

45:44

will the Guardians view him as

45:47

an everyday player for

45:49

2025? And there's

45:51

not a lot in his profile that

45:54

suggests he shouldn't be. Um,

45:57

throw in his minor league stats in with

46:00

Major League stats. He has 21 strikeouts

46:02

and 108 played appearances this season. That's

46:05

below a 20% strikeout

46:07

rate. Last season, it was 33 and

46:09

131 games. That's about a 25% strikeout

46:11

rate. Is

46:15

that only against lefties? Only against lefties, yes. Okay,

46:17

yeah, that's good. He's

46:20

hit for a decent amount of power this season

46:22

against lefties as well. And

46:25

it's like we talk about all the time. If

46:27

you're a young left-handed hitter, the biggest thing

46:29

is just don't be unplayable

46:32

against lefties. And Kyle Manzardo doesn't

46:34

look unplayable against lefties. It's just

46:36

a will

46:39

the Guardians trust him and

46:41

give him the space that he needs, the

46:43

opportunity that he needs to play every day.

46:46

I hope so. I think he's a

46:49

viable late round sleeper for 2025 now.

46:52

Yeah, as a corner infielder, I think

46:54

that makes some sense for Kyle Manzardo. I'm

46:57

writing it down right now. I'm going to probably

46:59

early on in the off season, do some way

47:01

too early sleepers, break out some bus. Kyle

47:04

Manzardo, 1B

47:07

Guardians locked in as

47:09

a sleeper. Let's go. We haven't

47:12

heard much about Dylan Cruz lately because

47:14

that's because he has slowed down 0

47:16

for 4 with three strikeouts here on

47:18

Tuesday. He's 1 for 24 over his

47:20

past six games. And

47:24

overall, he's batting just 196 with a 576 OPS. Plate discipline looks solid.

47:29

You know, zone contact is really good. Swinging strike

47:32

rate. Actually, the plate discipline

47:34

looks really good for Dylan

47:36

Cruz so far. The biggest issue is that he

47:38

has a 61% ground ball

47:40

rate and ground ball ground

47:42

balls were not really an issue for him in the minors.

47:44

So we've seen lots of big

47:47

name prospects get called up and not be great

47:49

right away. I think that's part

47:51

of the calculation here for Dylan Cruz. And

47:54

I think I would still be pretty

47:56

excited about him for next year. Yeah, I think

47:58

you look at it and then. It's

48:00

a 61% zone swing rate league

48:02

average of 67% probably

48:05

just not picking the right pitches to

48:07

swing at first pitch swing rate

48:09

only 21.5% league average 30% there. That's

48:13

one where seems to me like

48:16

he's on the wrong side of the passive

48:20

versus patients dichotomy.

48:22

And look, that's

48:25

it's a 22 year old

48:27

with very limited minor league

48:29

experience what less than 150 games total in the

48:31

minors. Like

48:34

that all makes a lot of sense. Everything's

48:36

probably just moving a little fast for him.

48:38

But you look

48:40

at the underlying stuff and like

48:43

he doesn't swing and miss at an alarming rate

48:45

on pitches in the zone, which is probably the

48:48

most important thing. He doesn't chase a

48:50

ton. The

48:52

quality of contact metrics aren't great, especially,

48:54

you know, you see the ground ball

48:56

rate being a problem. But like he

48:59

hits the ball pretty hard already. I

49:02

don't see a ton to be

49:04

concerned about in the long

49:06

run with Dylan Cruz. It

49:09

took him a little while to figure things out in the

49:12

minors as well as a professional.

49:15

And look, maybe it's like less

49:18

of a can't miss profile than

49:20

we thought, you know, there were reasons to think that

49:22

after his minor league debut. And

49:25

so maybe he's not a guaranteed superstar. Nobody

49:27

is, but, you know, he seemed like a

49:29

pretty good bet. And maybe he no longer

49:31

is. I think he's a pretty good bet

49:34

to be a good player. Though, Colton

49:36

Kouser destroyed a baseball here on Tuesday,

49:38

his 23rd home run, 113.6 eggs

49:42

of velocity, 432 feet. And

49:45

it's been an interesting season for Kouser had that

49:47

huge April. He was pretty bad

49:49

in May and June. He had a huge

49:51

July kicked off that second half. And

49:53

then he's just kind of been so, so in

49:55

August and September since the start of

49:57

August batting 237 with seven home runs. and

50:00

opious near 750. I

50:03

don't know what to make of cows or like he strikes out

50:05

too much. The underlying play discipline stuff

50:07

doesn't look that bad. He does

50:09

hit the ball extremely hard. Like looks like he should

50:12

be a good power hitter, like more than a 23

50:14

home run hitter. Who

50:16

do you think you'll have higher for next season? Colton,

50:19

Kouser or Elliott Ramos? They actually

50:21

this they're the same age. They feel

50:23

pretty similar, except Kouser's strikeout rate is

50:25

higher. The cows are stronger. Retire.

50:27

He's in a better lineup. You probably speed

50:30

is probably pretty similar. Kouser's got

50:32

better foot speed, but they both

50:34

have. They're

50:37

going to end up with a similar stolen base pace, I guess, is

50:39

the way to put it. My

50:42

gut was to say Kouser, but

50:45

I wonder if I'm just. You

50:48

know, kind of defaulting to prospect pedigree there. Yeah,

50:52

the one thing with Kouser is the numbers

50:55

against lefties aren't great. It's like

50:57

a low 600. Oh, yes. When

50:59

you look into the underlying stats. It's

51:03

still there, right? Like he has a three

51:05

forty six ex-woba against righties. He has a

51:07

298 ex-woba against

51:09

lefties. The

51:11

wiff rate is very similar, though. It's

51:14

actually thirty point three percent with rate

51:17

against righties, thirty point six against lefties

51:19

that. You know,

51:21

the quality of contact is significantly worse

51:23

against lefties. But if he's not

51:25

swinging and missing that much against lefties, that

51:27

suggests that it could be an

51:30

area for rapid improvement for him.

51:35

So I think Kouser's ceiling is

51:37

probably a little higher. And

51:40

I do not want to rule out

51:42

a young player getting better against lefties

51:44

because I've made that mistake in

51:47

the past. Mm hmm. You

51:49

know, sometimes they do not improve against lefties.

51:51

It's absolutely sure. But you know, just two

51:53

names that stand out this season. Gunnar Henderson

51:55

and CJ Abrams. I had those concerns for

51:57

both of them and they both improved massively.

52:00

Against lefties and even someone like

52:02

Raphael Devers when he first came up I remember I

52:04

was scared of the same things like will he hit

52:06

against lefties and he's turned out to be Serviceable against

52:08

them and obviously he's an elite fantasy

52:10

player So like not saying Colton cows there's

52:13

ever gonna get there But you know cows

52:15

are had some pretty big prospect pedigree coming

52:18

into the season and he's had an

52:20

okay season I think one that he can build

52:22

on heading into next year Let's

52:24

wrap up with talking about Mason win who's had a

52:26

solid season two for five with his 15th

52:28

home run for RBI He's hitting

52:31

266. He's got 78 runs scored 11

52:34

steals, you know, I just wish he ran more

52:37

Chris 87% house sprint speed Certainly

52:40

seems fast enough to run more The

52:43

Cardinals not the most aggressive their 21st in steals

52:45

as a team this season But

52:47

Mason win had 43 steals in the

52:49

minors back in 2022 So I kind

52:53

of feel like he's capable of at least

52:55

providing 20 plus deals. It's just a

52:57

matter of being more aggressive this is

52:59

I think one of the most frustrating things

53:01

about this season actually because when Before

53:05

Mason when got moved into the lead-off spot.

53:07

He was hitting in the bottom Four

53:09

spots in the lineup and he had let's

53:11

let's count him up 1336

53:14

42 starts batting

53:17

six seventh eighth or nine and

53:20

he had seven stolen bases in

53:22

those 46 starts That's about a 30

53:24

steel pace Maybe a

53:27

25 steel pace something like that. He

53:29

started 97 games as the lead-off hitter

53:33

He only has four steals on

53:35

six attempts in 97 games weird

53:37

batting lead-off. That's weird because If

53:41

anything you would think he would run more as

53:43

a lead-off hitter That's usually how it happens. A

53:45

lot of teams kind of don't

53:48

let guys run unless they're batting lead-off. And

53:50

so That is

53:52

I think that that's like the It

53:55

would really tie the room together if

53:58

he was a 25 stolen base guy

54:00

because I think Mason win, you

54:03

know, the 15 home runs. I

54:05

don't know how much more room there is for

54:07

growth, but you know, maybe 18,

54:10

maybe 20 in a peak season. I

54:12

think his two 66 batting average,

54:15

given the fact that he doesn't strike

54:17

out very much seems pretty

54:19

safe. Maybe even some room to get to

54:21

like two 80 there. And

54:24

it's just like, but

54:26

if he's going to steal seven bases, it

54:28

doesn't matter. That's, that's not a viable fantasy

54:30

option. Yeah. Unless he, you know, scores

54:32

110 runs or something, but like, it's

54:35

just a very boring profile. It's

54:37

like JP Crawford or something. If

54:41

he steals 30 bases, which I think he's fully

54:43

capable of. Now you

54:45

start to put them into that, like Anthony

54:48

Volpe, Andres Jimenez group, where it's

54:50

like, these aren't superstars by any

54:52

means, but they're very

54:55

good fantasy options, or at least guys that you're

54:57

starting and most Roto leagues and you

55:00

know, 105 games at triple a 17 steals 86 games, a

55:05

double a 28 steals. He's

55:07

certainly capable of being a 30 steel

55:09

guy. And I hope

55:11

they let him because I think that's the

55:14

pivot point on Mason wins fantasy career. All

55:16

right. Let's wrap up, some

55:19

potential streamers, Chris. He said we were done

55:21

with waiver wire. That's so fast. What about

55:23

if you play in daily lineup leagues, anyone

55:25

listening, you might be looking at

55:27

some streamers for this weekend and

55:30

Dean Kramer pitched well up against the

55:32

Yankees, five innings, one run, three strikeouts.

55:34

He is at the twins this weekend.

55:36

Jonathan Cannon, a strong start against the

55:38

angels six shutout innings with seven strikeouts.

55:40

And he is at the tigers. Jack

55:43

Kohana with, he did

55:45

it again this time against the white

55:47

Sox seven shutout with four strikeouts last

55:50

eight starts two 63 ERA

55:52

one Oh five whip. He's home against

55:54

the Rangers this weekend. And

55:56

Ryan Feltner has been pitching well,

55:58

um, six innings. run six

56:00

strikeouts here against the Cardinals. The

56:03

problem he faces the Dodgers in court field. So I

56:05

think he's out of the running. I don't know,

56:07

Chris, anything, any interest in

56:09

the streaming these names this weekend.

56:13

I know Canon has had stretches this

56:15

season where he's been pretty decent. I

56:18

know Josh, Jack Kohanelets is in a

56:20

stretch where he has been more

56:22

than decent. You are

56:24

never going to get me to buy into these guys.

56:26

Like this is a 19 strikeouts and 51 and

56:29

a third innings for

56:33

Jack Kohanelets. I'm sorry. This is

56:36

not 1992. That would be a

56:38

bad strikeout rate for 1992.

56:41

By the way, that's, that's like, I

56:44

don't know, Christie Mathewson strikeout numbers.

56:46

Like that, that's, that's that,

56:49

that is not a viable approach.

56:52

And I

56:54

don't know, like maybe he has another good

56:56

start and it all looks, it

56:59

makes me look stupid again, but I just, I

57:02

cannot cosign this. If you want to

57:04

start Jack Kohanelets or Jonathan Cannon, it's

57:07

it's, it's your

57:09

call. I'm not going to

57:11

tell you to. And Dean

57:14

Kramer, I, the twins have been

57:16

really bad offensively lately. So

57:20

that's probably the best of this group. And

57:22

look, if you need volume,

57:24

if you need strikeouts on that last day

57:27

of the season, I'll

57:29

go Kramer ahead of Kohanelets and

57:31

Jonathan Cannon. Certainly. Yeah, I

57:34

think that's fair. Some leftovers. We will

57:36

start with pitchers, Terrick Scubel, a

57:38

another gem up against Tampa Bay, seven shutout

57:40

innings with seven strikeouts, 18 whiffs on 103 pitches.

57:42

He is now up to 22 quality

57:47

starts that is tied for second most

57:49

in baseball. 18 wins are

57:51

tied for the most in baseball with Chris

57:53

Sale, Tanner, by be a gem up against

57:55

the red seven innings, one run seven strikeouts,

57:57

16 whiffs on pitches

58:00

has pitched very well in the month of

58:02

September Bowden Francis pitched well looked to be

58:05

Limited a bit here against the Red

58:07

Sox five shutout innings with four strikeouts

58:09

only through 71 pitches last

58:13

nine starts for Bowden Francis 153 era

58:18

0.53 whip crazy and Bailey

58:20

Ober was not at his best at

58:22

the at home against the Marlins in

58:25

a crucial crucial game five

58:27

innings four runs seven strikeouts 14 whips on

58:29

89 pitches I Think

58:32

maybe he was a little bit unlucky only three hard

58:34

hits. He had a 500 bad up

58:37

against so Maybe a little

58:39

bit of bad luck there for Bailey over but

58:41

Chris anything on him About in Francis Tanner by

58:43

be and Terrix school school is

58:45

the best pitcher in baseball He's the number one

58:47

pitcher for fancy in 2025. I do not think

58:49

we need to belabor the point Tanner

58:51

by be It Hasn't

58:54

quite been the season that we hoped

58:56

for like he hasn't taken the step

58:58

forward But then you step back and

59:00

you look at it all and it's like three forty seven

59:03

era 112 whip More

59:05

than a strikeout per inning like it's

59:07

pretty good It's just not

59:10

like the ace outcome that some

59:12

were hoping for and I'm

59:14

interested to see where he ends up

59:16

getting Drafted next season. Is he

59:18

a top 24 starting pitcher? My

59:21

that feels high just thinking about it right now

59:24

Closer to like top 30. Yeah, I think he's been

59:26

in the 30 range for me for most of the

59:29

season I'd feel good about him as my sp3. I

59:33

Think so. Yeah, but it

59:35

is like does he is there a

59:37

path forward to more? You

59:40

know, I think the throwing his fastball less

59:42

I think maybe that can get him there

59:44

the yeah cuz he does have several Very

59:48

good swing and miss secondaries and the

59:50

fastball is not a bad pitch. It's

59:53

just all The

59:55

other pitches feel a little better But

59:58

I don't know it's one of those things things were like, are

1:00:01

we judging him against some imagined

1:00:04

scenario where he's better? That

1:00:07

always is a little unfair. And it like

1:00:09

what he is is good. Yeah, it's just

1:00:11

like feels like he could be great. And

1:00:13

it feels like this

1:00:16

is the kind of picture that in the

1:00:18

past Cleveland has made go from good to

1:00:20

great. And it hasn't happened yet.

1:00:25

Francis is a,

1:00:29

that's a, that's a tough one. Cause

1:00:31

like, it certainly feels like

1:00:33

there's regression coming. It's

1:00:36

just not going to happen this season. And

1:00:40

I like, is he a,

1:00:43

is he a 450 ERA pitcher? Is

1:00:46

he a 360 ERA pitcher? I

1:00:49

think anything in that range is

1:00:51

possible. And I

1:00:54

like the, the growth that he's shown in

1:00:56

the second half since, you know,

1:00:58

really focusing on that splitter. I think

1:01:03

you're probably talking about a top 200 pick next year.

1:01:06

Probably not a lot more than that

1:01:08

though. Right? Like I think there's limited

1:01:11

strikeout upside the slot, the splitter, the

1:01:14

last couple of starts hasn't really been all that effective

1:01:16

for him. And yet he has been effective in spite

1:01:18

of it. So I don't know if it's

1:01:20

just the threat of that. I, I,

1:01:22

I don't know, man. He has, he

1:01:24

has a 153 ERA and a 53 whip over the

1:01:28

last nine starts. There's no, like, there's

1:01:30

no analysis of that unless he had

1:01:32

a 40% strikeout rate, which he

1:01:34

doesn't. It's like half that. So

1:01:37

it's just impossible

1:01:39

to, to, to really

1:01:41

analyze what he's done. He's, he's

1:01:44

hit. We'll

1:01:46

make the craps analogy again, even though none

1:01:48

of us, neither of us actually understands crap.

1:01:51

He's, he's hit sevens eight times

1:01:53

in a row or whatever unlikely thing happens

1:01:55

in craps. And you just can't, you

1:01:58

can't predict that, but that doesn't mean it's not. real

1:02:00

in some way. Yeah.

1:02:04

And it's kind of the opposite for Bailey over where

1:02:07

he's just had a run of

1:02:09

bad luck across a handful of starts. And if

1:02:11

you take those starts away, he looks

1:02:14

really good. That's that's Scott's case for him in

1:02:16

his bold prediction as the A.L. Cy Young next

1:02:18

year. It's just also he

1:02:20

has a 394 ERA and a 380 FIP and a 384 X FIP and he's probably

1:02:27

a mid to high three ZRA guy with

1:02:30

a really good whip and pretty good strikeouts. And there's a

1:02:32

lot to like there. I just don't

1:02:34

know if I necessarily see the big step

1:02:36

forward coming for Bailey over. Yeah.

1:02:39

Like based on those numbers,

1:02:41

it kind of feels like him

1:02:43

and Tanner by be should be in a similar range.

1:02:46

Right. And if we're talking about by be as like

1:02:48

closer to SP 30 as your SP

1:02:50

three, then, you know, I

1:02:52

think that's, that's probably the right range for over.

1:02:54

And Scott's talking about over as like a top

1:02:56

15 starting pitcher. So I mean, look,

1:02:59

we're allowed to have disconnects. Scott's allowed to

1:03:01

have his opinions and we're allowed to disagree.

1:03:04

I really like the picture that over

1:03:06

is and I'm not going to rule out the

1:03:08

possibility of him improving and maybe limiting

1:03:10

more of those like blow up starts are

1:03:13

for next season. But you know, to this

1:03:15

point, we haven't really seen that it's it's

1:03:17

been like a high three ZRA and a

1:03:19

really good whip so far in

1:03:21

Bailey over his career. And that's probably

1:03:23

just what I'm going to trust him to do

1:03:25

next year until he shows me otherwise to

1:03:27

hitting leftovers. Brandon Lau has homeward in back

1:03:30

to back games. The batting average has plummeted

1:03:32

since the start of August. He's batting just

1:03:34

220 and a massive breakout season

1:03:37

for William Dom. It's just had to mention

1:03:39

it again. Two for four with a walk

1:03:41

and his 20th steel. He's one of six

1:03:43

players to go 30 20 this season. The

1:03:46

other five being Otani Gunner Henderson,

1:03:49

Jose Ramirez, Bobby Whit jr.

1:03:51

And Francisco Lindor, all five of which are

1:03:53

going to be first round

1:03:55

picks or close to first round picks next

1:03:57

season. William Thomas will not be anywhere close.

1:03:59

to that contract year. We'll

1:04:02

see where he winds up. Clearly, I

1:04:04

think this is going to turn out to be a career

1:04:06

year for him. But yeah, figuring

1:04:09

out how early is too early to

1:04:11

draft, William Thomas will be

1:04:13

interesting, I think, in next for next season. He

1:04:16

had 30 steals and about 720 career games

1:04:18

entering to this season. He

1:04:21

has 20 now and 155. Yeah,

1:04:25

that that feels like the most

1:04:27

career or. Contract

1:04:30

year aspect of this, right? Because that's

1:04:32

the thing he can control. He

1:04:35

can't control that he happened to hit, I

1:04:37

don't know, 46 home

1:04:39

runs with with two runners on base or whatever

1:04:41

the number was. I think it's like 14 major

1:04:43

league record. But yeah, like.

1:04:48

You know, who was it? Bryce Harper,

1:04:50

the weirdly low RBI totals. William

1:04:53

Thomas is the opposite, weirdly

1:04:55

massive RBI totals. That's not

1:04:57

sustainable. I

1:04:59

don't know. I think I had him like seventh

1:05:02

or eighth in my shortstop rankings, but it's

1:05:04

a really deep position and like picking

1:05:07

between him and O'Neill Cruz, I think is going

1:05:09

to be really tough for 2025. Do

1:05:12

you think Adamus will be worthy of like

1:05:14

a top 75 pick next year? Would you

1:05:16

be the one making that pick? Those

1:05:19

are different questions. More prepared

1:05:21

to answer the first one. Yeah, I

1:05:23

think I will probably be fading. Willy

1:05:25

Adamas coming off this career year, but

1:05:28

it's also possible that everybody else is fading

1:05:30

him and I end up being the one

1:05:32

who takes him. But top 75 feels a

1:05:34

little iffy. Some

1:05:37

bullpen updates for the Royals. Lucas

1:05:40

Erce got the 10th ending with a one

1:05:42

run lead. The Manford man on second base.

1:05:44

He struck out two for his 12th save

1:05:46

for the Orioles. Sir Anthony Dominguez got the

1:05:48

final two outs for his 11th save for

1:05:50

the Marlins. Jesus to no co recorded the

1:05:53

final five outs for his third save. He

1:05:55

did not allow a base runner and he

1:05:57

looked pretty impressive so far for the White

1:05:59

Sox. Somebody. Justin Anderson got the ninth inning

1:06:01

with a one-run lead. He walked one but

1:06:03

picked up his first save of the season.

1:06:06

For the Astros, Josh Hader recorded the final

1:06:08

four outs, three via strikeout for his 34th

1:06:10

save. And for

1:06:12

the Padres, Robert Suarez

1:06:14

got the ninth inning with a three-run

1:06:16

lead. He gave up a run

1:06:19

on three hits, was in

1:06:21

a pickle, had runners on first and second with

1:06:23

no outs, and he got a

1:06:25

triple play to end the game and picked up his

1:06:27

35th save of the season. One

1:06:31

thing, I don't know if you didn't mention this

1:06:34

in the news, but

1:06:37

James MacArthur and Hunter Harvey have both been ruled

1:06:39

out for the rest of the season, I believe

1:06:41

for the postseason as

1:06:44

well, which is not a great sign for

1:06:46

Casey's bullpen, but should

1:06:48

keep Lucas Erceg in the

1:06:50

closures role. Yeah, for sure. To stream

1:06:52

or not to stream on Wednesday, we

1:06:54

have Cody Bradford at the

1:06:57

Oakland A's, Simeon Woods Richardson facing

1:06:59

the Marlins, Edward Cabrera at the

1:07:01

Twins. Can

1:07:03

you stream anybody against the White

1:07:05

Sox, Jose Suarez at the

1:07:07

White Sox, DJ Herrs faces the Royals,

1:07:10

Zach Lattel at the Tigers, Jacob

1:07:13

Junis at the Guardians, there's some pretty good ones

1:07:15

on Wednesday. Yeah, I

1:07:17

think Bradford at Oakland. I

1:07:23

think Lattel. Lattel at Detroit and

1:07:25

I don't

1:07:27

know, man, I

1:07:30

could see either Edward Cabrera or Simeon Woods

1:07:32

Richardson having decent games, but I don't love

1:07:35

the idea of starting them. So maybe

1:07:38

DJ Herrs, I think the top

1:07:40

two are clear though. Yeah, I agree

1:07:42

with your top two and then I would probably

1:07:45

go Simeon Woods Richardson. I think Jacob Junis at

1:07:47

Cleveland could be sneaky as well. On

1:07:49

Thursday, we have Aaron Savali at the Pirates.

1:07:51

We have Reese Olson up against Tampa Bay.

1:07:54

He has been kind of limited since returning. Tyler

1:07:56

Anderson at the White Sox and. Kumar

1:08:00

Rocker at Oakland and David Festa

1:08:02

versus the Marlins. I

1:08:04

think Tyler Anderson is probably the best choice here. Then

1:08:07

Savali and then. I

1:08:11

wouldn't be surprised if Rocker or Festa had good

1:08:13

starts, it's just. I

1:08:15

don't want to say trust them because

1:08:17

I don't trust either of them, but

1:08:19

I I could certainly see both

1:08:22

having good starts. Yeah, I would

1:08:24

go Tyler Anderson, then probably Festa and then

1:08:26

Savali Kumar Rocker. I'm excited to watch the

1:08:28

start and see how it goes. But, you

1:08:30

know, he's been pretty limited so far in his

1:08:32

first two, and I would probably expect the same

1:08:35

here at Oakland. We

1:08:37

are going to wrap there for Chris. I am Frank. Thanks as

1:08:39

always for tuning in to fantasy baseball today. Please

1:08:41

make sure to follow and leave a five star

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rating on Apple or Spotify. And we

1:08:45

will be back again tomorrow. Bye

1:08:47

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